Investment appraisal:
Investment
appraisal is a collection of techniques used to identify the attractiveness of
an investment. The purpose of investment appraisal is to assess the viability
of project, program or portfolio decisions and the value they generate. In the
context of a business case, the primary objective of investment appraisal is to
place a value on benefits so that the costs are justified.
The key
factors to consider are:
1. Risks and uncertainties
All business
investments involve risk – the probability that the hoped-for outcome will not
happen. An investment needs to earn a return that compensates for the risk. The risk of
a capital investment will vary according to factors.
2. Length of the project
The longer
the project, the greater the risk that estimated revenues, costs and cash flows
prove unrealistic
3. Source of the data
Are
estimated project profits and cash flows based on detailed research, gut feel,
or a little of both?
4. The size of the investment
An
investment that uses a substantial proportion of the available business funds
is, by definition, more risky than a smaller project. Risk is also about the
consequences to the business if something goes wrong!
5. The economic and market
environment
- A major
issue for most large investments-
Most
projects will make assumptions about demand, costs, pricing etc which can
become wildly inaccurate through changing market and economic conditions.
6. The experience of the management
team
A project in
a market in which the management team has strong experience is a lower-risk
proposition than one in which the business is taking a step into the unknown!
7. Qualitative influences on
investment appraisal
An
investment decision is not just about the numbers. A spread sheet calculation
for NPV or ARR might suggest a particular decision, but management also need to
take account of qualitative issues such as:
- · The impact on employees
- · Product quality and customer service
- · Consistency of the investment decision with corporate objectives
- · The business' brand and image, including reputation
- · Implications for production and operations, including any disruption or change to the existing set-up
- · A business' responsibilities to society and other external stakeholders
8. Quantitative influences on
investment appraisal
The
investment appraisal comes up with a result, but how is a decision made?
Many firms
set what are known as "investment criteria" against which they judge
investment projects. The use of investment criteria is intended to help guide
management through these decisions and address the potential conflicts.
So possible
criteria might suggest only accepting investment proposals which meet at least
two of the following:
- · A payback within four years
- · ARR of at least 20%, with no profits taken into account beyond Year 5
- · NPV of at least 25% of the initial investment
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